The market's big swing from oversold to overbought — plus, the GE Vernova bull case

CNBC Finance

Dec 04, 2025

4 min read

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Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch â an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Market moves: It's been a relatively muted session for the market Thursday, with the S & P 500 trading in a tight range. If the index were to finish the day in positive territory, it would mark its third straight session of gains and eight in the past nine, going back to Nov. 21, when New York Fed President John Williams revived hopes for an interest rate cut at December's central bank policymaking meeting. A rate cut next week would be the third of the year. Since Williams' comments, the S & P 500 has rallied almost 5% and is trading near its record close of 6,890.89 on Oct. 28. The rebound has been so sharp that the S & P Short Range Oscillator , our trusted technical momentum gauge, has swung from flirting with oversold territory at minus 3.73% on Nov. 20 to overbought at positive 4.06%, as of Wednesday's close. The market's current overbought status is still mild enough that it can work itself off through rotation, but we could lighten up on one or two more of our positions if the Oscillator becomes more egregiously overbought. An Oscillator reading of 4% or above indicates overbought. A reading of at minus 4% of lower signals oversold. Every time we mention the Oscillator, we're flooded with requests from Club members: "How can we access?" Well, we went directly to the source, our partners at MarketEdge, the data provider that publishes the Oscillator. We're excited to share that Club members can now get an exclusive discount for this helpful tool. Click here . What to expect : We're starting to see a bunch of analysts publish previews of GE Vernova 's investor update this coming Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. ET. We'll likely hear management update 2025 guidance, provide an outlook for 2026, and update its long-term 2028 outlook. At the company's investor update last December, management guided to $45 billion of revenue by 2028 with 14% adjusted EBITDA margins, and $14 billion of cumulative free cash flow from 2025 through 2028. Given the recent strength in orders at the company and demand expectations for gas turbine and electrification products and services, many analysts expect management to raise its 2028 outlook. How high? Analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote Monday that they anticipate the 2028 revenue guide will increase $3 billion to $48 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins rising to 16% and cumulative free cash flow up to $18 billion. Deutsche Bank said these targets will still sit below the sell-side consensus, which is around $53 billion in 2028 revenue, with adjusted EBITDA margins of 17.8%. The analysts are comfortable with their call because management is conservative and will want to leave room for upside. "While we do not foresee many major surprises vs. buy-side expectations, we think a bullish message on 2028 is likely enough to keep the bull case alive and well," Deutsche Bank said. GEV YTD mountain GE Vernova YTD GE Vernova shares have had a nice run ahead of the event. Thanks to Thursday's roughly 5% rally, the stock has gained about 13% over the past two weeks and is getting closer to its record close of $664.55 set in early August. Shares of GE Vernova have nearly doubled year to date. Up next: Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Ulta Beauty, DocuSign, Rubrik, and SentinelOne report earnings after Thursday's closing bell. Victoria's Secret reports quarterly results before Friday's open. On the data side, Friday morning, the long-delayed September PCE index is out. It's the Fed's favorite inflation measure. The University of Michigan also issues preliminary December consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Source: CNBC Finance

Published

December 04, 2025

Thursday at 7:44 PM

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The market's big swing from oversold to overbought — plus, the GE Vernova bull case

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